By Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)

AIDS has seemed in additional than one hundred thirty international locations, and over 100,000 situations of AIDS were stated within the U.S. on my own. a growing number of, the general public could be counting on statisticians to supply solutions in regards to the destiny process this epidemic. This entire paintings confronts the issues which are detailed to AIDS study and unites them below a unmarried conceptual framework. It makes a speciality of equipment for the layout and research of epidemiologic reviews, the usual heritage of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, tools for monitoring and projecting the process the epidemic, and statistical concerns in healing trials. a few of the equipment of tracking and forecasting this ailment obtain finished therapy. those equipment contain back-calculation, which the authors built; interpretation of survey information on HIV incidence; mathematical versions for HIV transmission; and methods that mix forms of epidemiological information. a lot of this fabric -- equivalent to a dialogue of equipment for assessing safeguard of the blood provide, an evaluate of survey ways, and techniques to venture pediatric AIDS occurrence -- isn't to be had in the other paintings.

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Extra info for AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics ; V. 22)

Sample text

3. 4. Jewell and Shiboski (1992) review statistical considerations in the design and analysis of partner studies of HIV transmission. 2 Statistical Methods for Partner Studies Data collected in a retrospective partner study include the current infection status of the susceptible partner and the estimated number of contacts between the partners. The number of contacts refers to the contacts that occurred between the time the index case was infected and the time of ascertainment of the infection status of the susceptible partner.

Behaviors that increased the chance of transmission included frequent sexual contact and anal sex. Frequent use of condoms was protective. Those exposed for 1 to 5 years had a greater chance of infection than those exposed for less than one year. Other partner studies have also found that risk is increased if the index case is severely immunodeficient (Goedert, Eyster, Bigger, and Blattner, 1987; European Study Group, 1989), if anal intercourse is practiced (European Study Group, 1989; Padian Shiboski and Jewell, 1990), if the female partner has a history of sexually transmitted diseases (European Study Group, 1989), and if condoms are not used (Padian, Shiboski, and Jewell, 1990).

2 STUDIES OF AIDS PATIENTS An enormous amount of epidemiologic information was obtained by carefully interviewing and studying individual patients with AIDS. , 1981; DeWys, Curran, Henle, and Johnson, 1982) identified the essential immune deficiency, indicated that homosexual men were at high risk, and suggested that a transmissible agent such as cytomegalovirus might be responsible. Masur, Michelis, Greene, et al. (1981) found a deficit in cell-mediated immunity in 11 males with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and noted that 5 of these patients were intravenous drug users.

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